IPO Pricing Model

Price discovery · book-building · allocation · greenshoe · sensitivity analysis

Recommended Price

$9.50

Oversubscription

1.8x

Implied Mkt Cap

$32.3M

Est. Proceeds

$57.0M

AI Pricing Optimizer

profile the offering → optimal price + allocation + risk

Price Discovery Bands

5 bands · midpoint $9.50 recommended

$8.00 – $9.00

mid $8.51.2x

Conservative · high certainty

🏛 6 inst👥 0.4M retailmkt cap $28.9M
recommended

$9.00 – $10.00

mid $9.51.8x

Recommended range

🏛 9 inst👥 0.6M retailmkt cap $32.3M

$10.00 – $11.00

mid $10.52.4x

Stretch · still covered

🏛 12 inst👥 0.9M retailmkt cap $35.7M

$11.00 – $12.00

mid $11.53.1x

Aggressive · risk of pop

🏛 14 inst👥 1.3M retailmkt cap $39.1M

$12.00 – $13.00

mid $12.54.2x

Overpriced · break risk

🏛 16 inst👥 1.8M retailmkt cap $42.5M

Book-Building Demand Curve

price → oversubscription
$8
4.2x
$9
3.6x
$10
2.8x
$11
2.1x
$12
1.4x
$13
0.9x
Lower price → higher bookRecommended zone: $9–$10

Allocation Matrix

6.0M shares total

Anchor Investors

locked
25%1.5M shares
demand:highlockup: 60d

Long-only Institutions

institutional
35%2.1M shares
demand:highlockup: 180d

Hedge Funds

institutional
15%0.9M shares
demand:mediumlockup: 30d

Strategic Partners

locked
10%0.6M shares
demand:high-5% disclockup: 365d

Retail / Online

retail
10%0.6M shares
demand:mediumlockup: none

Employees & Friends

directed
5%0.3M shares
demand:low-10% disclockup: 180d

Price Sensitivity Analysis

PriceProceedsDilutionMkt CapPost$PopBreak
$8$28.8M5.9%$27.2M$288Mlowlow
$9$32.4M6.6%$30.6M$324Mlowlow
$10$36M7.3%$34M$360Mmediumlow
$11$39.6M8%$37.4M$396Mhighmedium
$12$43.2M8.7%$40.8M$432Mhighhigh
$13$46.8M9.4%$44.2M$468Mhighhigh

Greenshoe & Stabilization

Over-allotment

15%
0.54M shares+$5.4M

Underwriter exercises if oversubscribed

trigger:Pop > 15%

Greenshoe (stabilization)

15%
0.54M shares

Buy back if price breaks issue

trigger:Price < issue

Lock-up (180d)

82%
18M shares

Insider selling restriction

trigger:180 days post-IPO